Tom Griffin (London, OK): Over at Unlock Democracy, Deputy Director Alexandra Runswick warns the Calman Commission against considering Scottish devolution in isolation from the wider UK constitutional settlement. Sadly the First Report suggests this may well happen. For example, it warns against greater financial autonomy on the grounds that it would lead to less ’shared social citizenship.’ That may be true in Scotland but the experience suggests that, if anything, the lack of financial autonomy is causing resentment in England and goes to the heart of Tam Dalyell’s West Lothian Question. Fundamentally, we believe this to be a false dichotomy; a fairer and more transparent financial settlement will be good for Anglo-Scottish relations on both sides of the border. The BBC's Brian Taylor suggests that Calman's concept of 'shared social citizenship' is at the heart of an intellectual defence of the union.  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Calman Commission on the future of  Scottish devolution has today published its first report. It's very much a provisional exercise, but it provides some important indications of the Commission's thinking. The maintenance of the union was always going to be a key principle for the Commission, which is backed by the three main unionist parties in Scotland and boycotted by the SNP.  However, even within the unionist spectrum, it has become increasingly clear that Calman is headed for a much more cautious set of proposals than the fiscal autonomy advocated by the Lib Dem Steel Commission.  Today's report states: our consideration of finance follows from our discussion of the nature of the Union. As well as being an economic Union, the UK has a shared social citizenship. Greater tax devolution would be associated with less shared social citizenship, while high dependence on grant funding implies some common expectations about the need for welfare services like health and education. We have not reached a view on the appropriate point in what is a spectrum of possibilities, but we do recognise that this must reflect the expectations of the Scottish population. In the next phase of our work, with further help from the Independent Expert Group, we will identify the possible combinations of the funding mechanisms and their implications for the nature of the Union.  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Calman Commission on Scottish devolution today received a report on the future of taxation and public spending from its economic advisors.  The report's contents have been heavily spun over the past couple of days. Several members of the expert group told Scotland on Sunday that it would favour greater powers for Holyrood.  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Calman Commission, which is taking evidence on the case for more powers for the Scottish Parliament, has today published a submission from the British Government. As Gareth Young notes, it is thin stuff for the most part, largely consisting of a rehearsal of the status quo and the case for maintaining it by each Whitehall department. The Treasury, for example, notes how "Scotland benefits from the Government’s successful macroeconomic policies set out in successive Budgets," although whether it was wise to mention the Government's two fiscal rules must be debateable at this stage.  Read the rest of this post...

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): What's a more motivating force, fear or hope? Across the pond Obama has inspired a generation, re-inspired another and put 9 million people on the electoral register. Here a halving of the Labour Partys majority has been represented as a historic victory. Here it was politics as usual, and bitter negative politics at that. Labour have successfuly played on peoples fears of economic collapse. But can Britain be held together by fear? Where is a credible positive agenda emerging from London? It's not going to be the Olympics or the sight of a UK football team emerging at Hampden comprising 11 Englishmen. There is no doubt that Labour ran a very successful campaign, but that's not why they won. The SNP ran a great campaign but chose a candidate that made them the incumbent (Peter Grant is the Head of the SNP Council), but that's not why they lost. There are three reasons why Labour won.  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): A remarkable upset means the Brown bounce continues: Labour, which had a majority of 10,664 in 2005, held the seat with 19,946 votes, while the SNP came second with 13,209. The Tories came third. Voter turnout at the by-election was 52.37%, compared to 56.1% in the 2005 General Election.  

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The ongoing saga over the fate of HBOS continues to highlight the new faultlines in Scottish politics. The recently appointed Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy is facing criticism after leaking details of talks with Jim Spowart about an alternative to the Downing Street-backed Lloyds-TSB takeover. The Sunday Herald reports: Alex Neil, the SNP MSP who has been campaigning for HBOS jobs to be saved, accused Murphy of trying to spike the second bid. He said: "This is a resigning matter. Jim Murphy has shown that he can't really be trusted to keep confidential matters to himself. This is market-sensitive information. This is really underhand and mischievous behaviour to try and spike any chance of another bid." David Mundell, the shadow Scottish secretary, said: "If there is any suggestion that any politician has got embroiled or broken any confidences then that is a very serious situation and must be investigated." Tavish Scott, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, said: "This is really dirty tricks to save Labour's neck. This is purely because Gordon Brown cannot be seen to change his mind after waving the Lloyds TSB and HBOS deal to go through."  Read the rest of this post...

 Tom Griffin (London, OK):The Scottish Government's plans to replace council tax moved centre-stage in the Glenrothes by-election yesterday. On a visit to the Fife constituency, Chancellor Alistair Darling condemned the SNP's local income tax proposal as a "ridiculous idea." In the past few days, SNP Ministers have announced significant changes to the policy, with councils being given the power to set their own income tax rate of up to 3p in the pound. This could prove crucial in winning the support of the Liberal Democrats, who have long called for a local income tax that is truly local. Without Liberal Democrat support, the SNP minority government stands little chance of getting its proposals through the Scottish Parliament. The revamped proposals seem to have got a fair wind from Lib Dem blogger Stephen Glenn. If his colleagues at Holyrood feel similarly, council tax could yet be on the way out north of the border.

Tom Griffin (London, OK):Most commentators may see it as a straight fight between Labour and the SNP, but that didn't stop David Cameron making his presence felt in the Glenrothes by-election yesterday:  "I think it is better for all of us to be in the United Kingdom. However, we won't solve it by frightening the Scots that they cannot make it on their own. I do not believe that. It won't win the argument. One of the first things I will do as Prime Minister is arrange to meet with the First Minister, whoever that may be, and work to further the benefits of the Union for people in Scotland." Cameron has shown in recent months that he is determined that the Tories should be more than an English party. One aspect of this strategy has been to offset weakness in Scotland through a new relationship with the Ulster Unionists. There are signs that plan may be unravelling. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Could victory in the Glenrothes by-election set the seal on Gordon Brown's political comeback? Labour pollsters have told the Prime Minister that they will win on the back of his handling of the banking crisis, according to the BBC. As the Sunday Times noted at the weekend, the credit crunch has prompted a reassessment of the viability of Scottish independence. Brown himself has not been afraid to make the argument, citing the UK bailout of HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland: "We were able to act decisively with £37bn. That would not have been possible for a Scottish administration. "We've seen the problems in Iceland, we've seen the problems in Ireland, we were able to put the whole strength of the United Kingdom's resources behind these two banks and I think it's important because I value the Scottish banking tradition, I think that everybody does."  Whether it is Brown's interests to preserve the Scottish banking tradition is open to question. Many now believe that the Downing Street-arranged merger of HBOS with Lloyds-TSB is unnecessary. The deal will inevitably weaken Edinburgh's status as a financial centre, and thereby, incidentally, the case for Scottish independence. One cannot help but wonder whether this was a factor in Brown's pursuit of this option.  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Today's Scotsman reports on the dramatic impact which the credit crunch is having in Edinburgh: Morale is said to have fallen to an "all-time low" among the city's 31,000 finance workers as they wait to find out whether their jobs will survive the upheaval. And as house prices fall, and the dole queue lengthens, there were fresh warnings today that the city council will have to deal with a rise in homelessness in the near future. One reason for the gloomy outlook is the expected merger of HBOS with London-based Lloyds.That move is now being questioned by the Liberal Democrats in the light of today's huge bailout of the entire banking sector. Commenting on the rescue package, Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott urged the government to help keep HBOS as an independent bank. He added: "This is a massive package of money for banks. Market and banking circumstances have changed enormously since the proposed Lloyds/HBOS merger was announced. "The government are now in direct negotiations with banks so they could make this happen. "Keeping HBOS as an independent bank while strengthening RBS through this package would be positive economic news for Scotland. I urge the government to make this happen."

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): Yesterday the date for the Glenrothes by-election was (finally) announced.As last week there was near unanimous approval amongst the commentariat that Brown was doomed, now, after a wee snog on stage he's (apparently) safe as houses. Commentators huddle together in packs, and the swing is not contained to Westminster groupies. BBC Scotland's own Brian Taylor writes: 'The prospect that defeat in Glenrothes might finish off the PM seems to have receded. Not because anything has changed in Glenrothes but because things have changed inside Labour. Few expect a challenge to Mr Brown, given the economic climate, whatever political triggers are made available by the electorate."  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Glenrothes by-election is set to go ahead on Thursday, 6th November. The timing is not a surprise, as with a US presidential election on the Tuesday, the outcome won't be the big story of the week. In any case,with the immediate threat to Gordon Brown's premiership receding, the poll may not be the date with destiny that many had expected.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The credit crunch has shaken the political kaleidoscope at Holyrood as well as at Westminster. In both cases, somewhat counter-intuitively perhaps, Labour has been the initial beneficiary. The shotgun merger between HBOS and Lloyds may have seemed like an open goal for Alex Salmond, but many feel he overplayed his hand, not least with his suggestion that an independent Scotland could have bailed out HBOS. Former Scottish Lib Dem leader Jim Wallace argues that the episode has highlighted unanswered questions about monetary policy and financial regulation in an independent Scotland. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): It looks like the Calman Commission may not be coming to England any time soon.  According to an email from the Commission's Secretariat, a planned meeting in Berwick-upon-Tweed has been postponed. it's not a first time that the body, established by a Labour/Liberal Democrat/Conservative alliance in the Scottish Parliament to consider the case for further devolution, has had this problem. Its first event in Scotland, an invitation-only public meeting planned for Stirling last month, was cancelled due to lack of interest. A certain amount of anecdotal evidence has emerged in recent weeks to support initial fears that the Commission would be 'neither open not inclusive'. At this rate, Calman will struggle to provide a credible alternative to the SNP's National Conversation. And yet the fact remains it is only the parties represented on the Commission who have the votes at Westminster to deliver further devolution.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Iain Gray has just been announced as the new leader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament, the BBC reports. Meanwhile the Greens are set to become the latest Scottish Party to change their leader, with the news that Robin Harper is to step down.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scottish Labour Party will have a new leader by this weekend. The Scotsman suggests that Wendy Alexander's successor could quickly find themselves at odds with Westminster: In London, the government is trying to keep down wage inflation and will not provide any more money for public-sector wages. In Scotland, the party is going through a leadership campaign where two of the candidates have been backed by unions involved in the strike action. What this means is that, when Labour in Scotland does get its new leader this weekend, the party here will almost certainly be in favour of strike action while the party in England is not.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Only days after the Scottish Government announced its plans for a local income tax, it seems another confontation with Westminster is looming. The Sunday Herald brings us news that the report of the Scottish Broadcasting Commission, due to be released on Monday, will call for a new terrestrial TV service: The stand-alone Scottish digital television channel envisaged by the commission would be based in Scotland and could resemble the new publicly funded Gaelic broadcasting channel. The commission's near year-long inquiry also involved bosses from the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 explaining how they could better cater for Scottish needs. The switchover to digital television is expected to be completed by 2012, so the new channel could be implemented within four years.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): Gordon Brown has been coming around to the case for giving more tax powers to the Scottish Parliament for some time, as Brian Taylor notes, but last night's speech to the Scottish CBI puts fiscal devolution more firmly on the agenda. "First of all," he told Scottish business leaders, "devolution has worked but I do see one problem. While there have been good reasons why this is so, the Scottish Parliament is wholly unaccountable for the budget it spends but not for the size of its budget. And that budget is not linked to the success of the Scottish economy. That is why we asked the commission to look carefully at the financial accountability of the Scottish Parliament and this is a critical part of Calman's remit."  Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scottish Government revealed its legislative programme for the next year today. The centre-piece was Alex Salmond's announcement of "abolition of the oppressive council tax in favour of a fair local income tax, bringing much needed relief to household budgets." Over at Conservativehome, Tory MSP Derek Brownlee raises a number of searching about the assumptions behind the SNP plan for a local income tax rate of 3p in the pound. Read the rest of this post...

Gareth Young (Lewes, CEP): The Scottish Claim of Right of 1988 was signed by all the Scottish Labour MPs, with the exception of Tam Dalyell.  In 1997, with the advent of the Labour Government of the UK, one third of that initial cabinet (8 out of 24) had signed that claim and were thus pivotal in influencing the Labour UK Government, which issued the white paper, the Scotland Devolution Bill 1998. The Scottish Claim of Right acknowledged that the Scottish people have the sovereign right to decide the form of government best suited to their needs.  That 'form of government' must include independence as well as devolution, yet those cabinet members do not seem in any great hurry to hold a referendum on independence. When they signed the Claim quite possibly it never occurred to them that the Scottish people might decide to get rid of them altogether. They should be reminded of it at every opportunity.  Rather than display a willingness to hold a referendum on independence, apart from Wendy Alexander's short-lived "Bring it on!", the Unionists claim instead that because there is a Unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament, the people of Scotland have "voted for the Union". It is just possible that the SNP may gain a majority of the Scottish Westminister seats at the next General Election, and if so that will mean, according to Unionist logic, that the people of Scotland have voted for independence. I'm sure they will try wriggle out of that. The Scottish Claim of Right was a principled recognition of the sovereign right of the people.  It is hypocritical of Gordon Brown, and others who signed that Claim of Right, to now deny that same sovereign right to the people of England, especially as recognition of the Scottish sovereign right has moved power away from Westminster in a way that has damaged English voters.

Anthony Barnett (London, OK): Tom Griffin spent a long time finding Stephen Glenn to write a post about the Lib Dem leadership contest. I'm afraid Tom didn't get as much warm support from me in his search as he should have. Eventually, he found Stephen and we ran this story by him on the battle to lead Lib Dem Scotland. It seemed to me that Tavish Scott was the least interesting of the three candidates, if he is indeed standing for continuity of a forlorn strategy. Today they have announced the outcome of the ballot: it seems that Scottish Lib Dems have voted for the hole into which they are digging. Could this be true?

Tom Griffin (London, OK): It seems the Westminster/Holyrood faultine inside the Scottish Labour Party extends to the question of whether there should be a UK football team at the 2012 Olympics. Gordon Brown held out that prospect during his visit to Beijing at the weekend: 'I think when people are looking at the Olympics in 2012 - Britain, home of football, where football was invented, which we gave to the world - I think people would be very surprised if there is an Olympic tournament in football and we are not part of it.' Scottish Labour leadership candidate Cathy Jamieson has proposed an alternative plan: "One option could be a home nations football tournament with the winners representing the UK at the Olympics." Jamieson added: "Team GB should include a football team but not at the expense of Scotland's football team. It would be wrong to gamble with the identity of Scotland's team."  Read the rest of this post...

Stephen Glenn (Linlithgow, Lib Dems): What next for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland? They're no longer in a coalition administration but just part of the opposition to an SNP minority government. It's a dangerous position with the Tories strengthening and Labour weakening. Three candidates have stepped forward to fill the void left by Nicol Stephen's resignation as leader, by the end of next week one of them will be leader. Tavish Scott, a close ally of Stephen, is seen by many as the continuity candidate. Ross Finnie, served eight years in the cabinet when the party was in coalition with Labour after the Scottish Parliament was created. He says the party needs to find its 'narrative' again. Mike Rumbles, who chaired the Holyrood's Standard's Committee for four years, sees a radical path ahead. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scottish press is full of speculation this weekend that former First Minister Henry McLeish has been sounded out for the Labour candidacy in the Glenrothes by-election.  The Sunday Times reports: Senior party figures are alarmed that Henry McLeish, the former first minister who resigned in disgrace in 2001, has emerged as a frontrunner for the vacant Glenrothes seat, following the death of John MacDougall, the Labour MP, last week. Some local activists and members of the British government believe McLeish may be the party’s only hope because he is a popular figure locally, having represented the area as an MP and MSP.  Read the rest of this post...

Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): John MacDougall, the Labour MP for Glenrothes, in Fife, died today after a long illness. His death will trigger a by-election in a constituency that borders that of Gordon Brown. He won Glenrothes with a majority of 10,664 at the last General Election in 2005. They are saying that the by-election may not be until October. Just as well, perhaps, as a YouGov poll out today shows Labour in meltdown in Scotland. Its survey on voting intentions for Westminster puts the SNP on 36% (double its support at the last election) whilst backing for Labour has collapsed to 29% (down 11%). The Tories are up 2% to 18% while the Liberals are on 13%. This would mean Labour losing 19 MPs and retaining just 22 seats, while the SNP would move up from 6 to 26. The poll suggests Alistair Darling and Des Browne would both lose their places in the Commons. It looks even worse for Labour when this is translated into a Holyrood context. Applied to the Scottish Parliament the You Gov results mean SNP would win 58 of Scotland's 73 Holyrood first-past-the-post seats. (SNP - 58 constituency seats (plus 37) Labour - 8 constituency seats (minus 29) LibDems - 6 constituency seats (minus 5) Tories - 1 constituency seat (minus 3)) On the basis of these figures all three of the candidates for the Labour leadership, Iain Gray (East Lothian), Andy Kerr (East Kilbride) and Cathy Jamieson (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley), would lose to the SNP. John MacDougall had served Fife for more than 20 years, after being elected to Fife Regional Council in 1982. He later became the leader of the council and also served as the director of Glenrothes Development Corporation and Fife Enterprise before being elected to the House of Commons. The last by-election fought in Fife, in February 2006, saw the Liberal Democrats seize power in a strong Labour seat. It could prove an omen.

Tom Griffin (London, OK): For the first time since the advent of devolution, the Scottish Labour Party is going through a competitive leadership contest, and it's proving to be an invigorating debate. In an incisive analysis in the Sunday Times, former First Minister Henry McLeish argued that the party's Holyrood leader needs greater powers: The current leadership debate in Scotland has given Labour a unique chance to address five key areas: the need for the party in Scotland to have much greater autonomy; the need for the Scottish Labour leader to have more power and a wider authority; the need for a radically reformed and flexible Union fit for the new purposes of the 21st Century; the need, to embrace a coherent, modern post-devolution strategy for the constitutional future of our country; and the need for Labour in Scotland to reconnect with its base with a new narrative of what it stands for in this new era.   Read the rest of this post...

David (Cambridge, Britology Watch): What is the Union from which Scotland would separate if it voted for independence? Is it the United Kingdom (that is, of Great Britain and Northern Ireland: the continuation of the 1801 Union between Great Britain and the whole of Ireland); or is it merely Great Britain (the Kingdom that resulted from the 1707 Union between England & Wales and Scotland)? If it is the former, then I would concede the point that only those living in Scotland should have the automatic right to vote for Scottish independence in a referendum: irrespective of questions of national sovereignty, it satisfies the demands of natural justice that it is the people living in a particular country or region who should decide whether to separate from a larger national or supra-national entity of which that country or region has hitherto been a part. The analogy here would be with the 1995 referendum on independence for Quebec. It was right that only those living in Quebec were entitled to vote; and even if independence had been carried, the rest of Canada would have remained Canada without Quebec. Similarly, the United Kingdom would still be the United Kingdom without Scotland, albeit a continuation of the 1801 Union in which the absence of the southern part of Ireland would now be paralleled by the absence of the northern part of Great Britain. I hope we could then sensibly call it the ‘United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland' rather than what could well be regarded as a ‘logical' alternative in view of this ironic ‘symmetry' of Irish and Scottish independence: the ‘United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland'! Let's at least include England in the name of the state now that Great Britain was no more - even if England did continue to be governed, as it is now, as if it were the UK. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Scotsman brings us news that the SNP is preparing to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats to abolish the council tax in Scotland. As the SNP is running the Scottish Government as a minority administration, it needs the support of one of the other main parties to get its plans through. The Lib Dems support the principle of a local income tax, but are adamant that it must be set locally, by individual councils, rather than by the Scottish Government at 3p in the pound. Read the rest of this post...

Tom Griffin (London, OK): In today's Sunday Herald, former Labour Scottish Finance Minister Tom McCabe delivers a brutally frank assessment of Labour's diminished place in Scotland's political landscape, and one of the starkest calls yet for the Scottish Party to set its own agenda: So how can Scottish Labour respond? First, with a leader who is seen to be in charge, taking responsibility and being prepared to say and do what is best for Scots, no matter who it might upset. Read the rest of this post...